Consultative Assembly: Shake-up?
This week, Iranians vote in Consultative Assembly elections. Hopes that reformists might make a comeback and that the poll might become a referendum on President Mahmoud AhmadiNejad's controversial presidency have been dashed by the disqualification of key opposition candidates, although I began to feel that it's no longer reformists against conservatives in Iran but pragmatic conservatives against the hardliners perhaps.
Despite his dismal economic record, and his failure to deliver on populist redistributive campaign promises, AhmadiNejad's hard-line conservative faction enters the elections in surprisingly good shape. The UN approved a third round of sanctions on Iran last week, but the evaporation of the US threat to take military action against Iran after the publication of the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) in December is widely viewed in Iran as vindication of his uncompromising stance on the issue. He has seen off his main rival on the nuclear front, Ali Larijani, and seems to enjoy more solid backing from Supreme Leader, who ultimately calls the shots.
Last week also, he made a historic visit to Iraq. The open and 'normal' style of the trip was in sharp contrast to the furtive and unannounced visits of US leaders, all no doubt designed to show that it is Iran which really counts in the Persian Gulf.
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