Re: Easter Surprise: Should Iran rush into war?
Thanks Amir for the interesting post. Let me list my points of view on this:
Regardless of the political maneuvers of the current Iranian government, there are a few facts:
1) It is 100% unfair and ridiculous to stop Iran's enrichment programs and at the same time allow (and encourage, and support) Pakistan's nuclear weapon's technology. Pakistan is exporting the biggest number of radical terrorists in the region and yet it is allowed to have any dodgy weapon it wants. I don't even want to mention Israel here for it's been mentioned a zillion times. I find it amazing that non of the British and American media mention Pakistan's situation when it comes to Iran and NPT, maybe they have no answer for it?
2) Regarding NPT, I found an interesting article in Prospect magazine from the link on this blog's home page, I suggest you all read it:
http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=7486
3) Iran is already the largest regional power, but that's nothing really surprising or strange. It's the largest country in terms of population (after Pakistan) with the biggest economy, oil/gas exports, industrial infrastructure, best literacy rate, biggest army, and youngest population. It's geographic location is also strategically important. Plus, two of Iran's worst enemies (The Taliban and Saddam) were taken down during the last US-led war!
4) There was an interesting panel on Iran during the World Economic Forum in Davos, I suggest you all see the video. I especially like Vali Nasr's comments:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1170191306033745437
5) I am not surprised to see Iranian politicians totally inflexible in their stance with the west. A deadly war was imposed on Iran in 1981 by Saddam Hussein and all western powers supported that little blood-thirsty monster. That war changed all the politics in Iran forever. Many of today's politicians have lived and served during that war, and have learned a very important lesson: "If you're weak, you'd be f*cked. If you're not strong enough, even a coward asshole like Saddam would dare attack you, so never be unprepared". Now, I wish the Iranian government behaved in a different way and adopted a more positive approach to its foreign affaris, but it is not strange when you see Iranian officials not trusting western politicians.
6) I don't think Iran is planning to go to war, they cannot afford any conflict, neither can Americans. Iran is flexing muscles to gain as much credits as possible before settling on an agreement regarding their nuclear technology
7) I am truly sorry for what happened to the 15 British personnel, and I hope they return to their families (or their military bases) very soon. I'm sure they were all briefed about their missions when sent to the Persian Gulf, and were totally aware of the potential dangers in their path. Chavs like Tru Brit who left a message on Amir's post have lost their priority (surprise! was he drunk? on drugs? wearing burberry caps and white trainers? living on benefits putting pressure on British tax payers?). Didn't the yanks *Kill* many British servicemen during both Persian Gulf wars? Wasn't a video footage of the murder recently released? What did Tru Brit and his friends do? Did they threaten American students of kidnap and murder? I guess not, maybe they were drunk on buckfast or high on some crap drug. Excuse my language.
I don't even want to mention Israel...
Yea...they'd raze Iran to the ground before their tupperware missile's got 100 meters off the ground.
Have a nice day.
(at March 29, 2007 02:15 AM)
It's funny how some people are scared of Iran's bomb! They're having difficulties setting up a bloody simple nuclear powerstation for electricity, let alone the bomb.
Media hype! that's why.
(at March 29, 2007 03:57 PM)
Parthisan (I am afraid, don’t know your name) - it was a well written short article; however, I need to draw your attention to several facts here:
- The vast majority of Iranian people have no desire for the so-called Nuclear Technology. Believe it or not, most people in Tehran don’t have a clue despite its high rate of literacy what this popular nuclear technology is! This goes for either peaceful means or in the other forms. If you were a member of parliament in Iran, for instance, you would have been arguing the essential needs and fundamental issues of your constituency such as health care, unemployment etc. These are the current vital needs of the people of Iran and not a nuclear power station. Yes, of course wealth of oil and gas would take us for just another 150 years perhaps and no more, and we need to supply alternatives to that, and it could be today’s precedence yet with what cost? We are in danger of threatening the existence by bunch of insane muthas whom demolished Iraq in every way! I know, they wouldn’t dare to, but in fact they could put pressure on Tehran and give us a hard time which they are doing!
- Pakistan: Parviz Musharraf is a different politician to our president today. He is acting as the representative of western and leave it or like it, he is on his kneels in front of them. But he does have a leadership personality and that is exactly why Pakistan has enrichment ability since long time ago and nobody dare to complain. He, by all mean, killed (or has it killed in a way!) that “temptation” which I mentioned earlier in my article about Iran. Now leave Pakistan, let’s say King Abdullah of Jordan. I always make an example of him. He is a puppy pet of western. He is one of a very small group of Middle East leaders who is still an ally of the United States and he is basically a Palestinian yet allied with Israel also… however, he is competent and suitable skilled in term of leading his nation to comfort! His father married to two among others I supposed (correct me of o am wrong): an English girl and then an American one! He has the support in the price which he or his father has paid, and wise enough to learn and continue the prosperous diplomacy! You may call it abominable or perhaps disgraceful, I don’t care, who is the winner? Jordanian living comfort!
- I have listened to Vali Nasr's comments on the world economic forums at the time, and I am widely agreed with almost all of his saying.
- Re Royal Navy: All signs indicate that with the exception of the sole female sailor, the release of the other 14 captives is not imminent, no matter how tough Blair's rhetoric or the pressures exerted by the British government and even the EU. I was just reading that Pentagon spokesperson said that "The US is not escalating tensions with Iran," which is a good news. At least for now, Iran is ahead of its game!
(at March 29, 2007 04:38 PM)
Can't US afford to go to war? Of course they can!Nobody can intemmidate this old fat bully! Open your eyes iranian, you're like a fagot who has a big mouth yelling straight to the face of this western bully! Upgrade your millitary warfare and show what you can do, be a real man. Come on man , Western civilization is just laughing at you. That's the truth.
(at March 29, 2007 06:26 PM)
on the current rate of growth, Iran will run out of energy in a decade or so. Iran is importing gasoline and electricity already, and there is no question about the fact that we need more sources of energy in near future, and lots of it.
I personally wish Iran had invested in renewable energy long ago, bypassing nuclear power and harnessing its vast solar, wind and hydro-based sources; but it hasn't (who else has? it's just a new trend). Furthermore, we cannot import and burn fossil fuels forever, can we? Therefore we either need to start using renewable energy NOW or we need to go nuclear. There is no third option.
By mentionning the example of Pakistan, I wanted to say that if we're going to disarm we should start from Pakistan, India and Israel who already have nukes and are not NPT members.
(at March 29, 2007 07:38 PM)
Shame on Blair, Reid & Co for their incompetence and their idiotic theatrical stage! Where were Faye Turney's family when she was being sent to the frontline of an illegal war?? did they think she was going on holidays to Cancun? Now that she's captured "while on duty" suddenly you have her family and friends grieving! I'm disguested.
This is the price we pay for starting a bloody illegal war!
(at March 29, 2007 07:55 PM)
Jake, of course the US can't afford a war! War with what? two aircraft carriers and a group of unhappy soldiers? It's like a joke!
Iran doesn't need to prove anything to anyone, we're sick of war.
(at March 29, 2007 08:31 PM)
@ Trevor: I am all agreed with you. Whether or not this is likely or, obversely, we will witness the accidental consequences of a mini-crisis run wild after Blair's threat, remains to be seen.
(at March 29, 2007 08:51 PM)
Guys wake up! Those aircraft carrier can annihilate Iran in just a couple of hours if not damaged it significantly. Do your home work boys and look at the portfolio of US Military power.We dominate the air, don't we? We don't need ground troops for opening the war( at least for a couple of days to sweep small resistance?). What you got are those out dated Russian military hardware. You will not have a chance, believe me(on air or ground).
I would say shame on Faye! She just humiliated her own country by eating her own vomit in front of the whole world. She really thought that she's just going for a vacation in Cancun( For crying out loud, she's a British Royal Sailor!!!!)SHAME!!! Shame on her!!!!
(at March 30, 2007 04:00 AM)
Simple Facts: US Military Might
+The US has 247,000 troops and civilians posted overseas, with a presence in more than 130 countries, covering every time zone. The US has 13 military bases in countries around Afghanistan. It has military presence in Uzbekistan, Takijstan, Kyrgystan and Georgia, all former Soviet countries.
The Department of Defense employs 1.4 million people on active duty. It is the largest employer in the US, with more employees than ExxonMobil, Ford, General Motors and GE combined.
+The Department of Defence owns 40,000 properties, covering 18 million acres of land.
+The US operates a fleet of more than 15,000 aircraft, including 20 STEALTH BOMBERS in service. The navy operates more than 1,000 ocean going vessels.
+The Defense Department buys enough fuel every day to drive a car around the world 13,000 times.
+The US headquarters at the Pentagon employs 23,000 workers and incorporates over 17 miles of corridors.
+ The US spends an average of $28,000 on research and development for each member of its armed forces compared to the European average of $7,000.
The real question is: Can Iran afford to go to war against USA?
(at March 30, 2007 04:26 AM)
Jake,
Over 1 million soldiers and 25 million reserves and faith in the cause of defending your own homeland against brutal and inhumane aggression beats all the bloody useless "facts" you listed. YOU wake up!
(at March 30, 2007 04:41 AM)
Oh Jake, you are hopeless. lol –
I believe American people like you must break out of this perverted aggressive chauvinism and patriotic emotions, and realise that this is just a small part of the madness of western policy of continual war in the Middle East leaded by the U.S. administration. Your government’s contempt for Middle Eastern lives has already been adequately demonstrated in Iraq. That is what we have to stop. Today you are confronting an Iranian saucy and bold policy with an equal lust for glory and lack of human concern. Save yourself my friend.
(at March 30, 2007 05:11 AM)
Thanks for all those *amazing* information about the US military. Now let's look at the reality: This mighty army has failed in two wars with the most miserable countries in the world, namely Afghanistan and Iraq. That says it all. Good evening
(at March 30, 2007 12:08 PM)
The US military is more hype than reality. The majority of soldiers are recruited from deprived areas, and going to war is a *job* for them. What motivation would allow you to kill people as part of your job? Peace keeping and defence may create enough motivation for you to stay sane but invasion? unless you're totally nuts. Most of them are not even sure why they're being sent to different corners of the world.
Simply put, they have the capacity to cause great harm but they are equally prone to great loss.
(at March 30, 2007 04:10 PM)
Your comprehensions are far as from the east to the west. I must admit that the war on Iraq is a mistake. We could have known that Arab people have a different point of view in life and can only be ruled with the iron fist like Saddams.The objectives may have failed but we never lost the war. Those facts were intended to inform Iranians that they are in an erroneous perception of reality believing that they are a powerful nation to withstand the war against USA.
(at March 30, 2007 07:02 PM)
To PRSN: I think 5 STEALTH Bombers can do the job. What do you think?
(at March 30, 2007 07:06 PM)
its won't be a war, just a long airstrike.
all the iranian soldiers won't mean a thing. the us will nuclear bases and missile bases from air. iranian soldiers will just have to run to the nearest shalter.
worst case scenario is for them to try and attack us trops in iraq. but they will be airstrike there too.
the useless kidnap of brit sodiers just brings us close to d day. i suspect it's an ahmadinijad effort to gain public support before he is attacked.
(at March 31, 2007 02:29 AM)
Agreed with isr...
1st phase: Destroy command, control and defense (1-2 days)
2nd phase: Air Domination (over in less 1 day)
3nd phase: bombing of nuclear facilities, infrastructure and armies (1-2 weeks)
No ground war and blockade of iran borders.
US can send Iran to dark age in less than a week.
Ask iraquis, Serbians and talibans how they felt when they where carpet bombed or when they couldn't hide anywhere... It would be far worse if US wouldn't be careful about civilians, thats why job isn't finished in Irak. Us wants to be careful.
Us military budget is HUGE... just look at 2005 compared to the rest of the world... Where's iran in that?
http://www.globalissues.org/Geopolitics/ArmsTrade/Spending.asp
Maybe Iran will be more peaceful... after a few days of war with US.
Good luck to Iranians if there's a war, i know most of them don't deserve another war... I hope future will be brighter without an useless fight.
(at March 31, 2007 06:27 AM)
US military strength is a myth. They can't manage to "win" in Iraq and Afghanistan, two countries with no military/army...
The US has B52 and B2 bombers, they can try to carpet bomb Iran but the only thing they'd gain is turning the most pro-west people in the region against them.
Iran has very modern air defense scattered all over the country (wider than France and Germany combined) and very powerful unconventional navy consisting of thousands of superfast partisan-style boats and anti-ship missiles operating in a 1000+km stretch in the Persian Gulf. In case of war, US will have to say byebye to both aircraft carriers and its navy base in Bahrain. Plus, all US bases in west asia will get attacked.
Simply put, an invasion is highly unlikely because it will end up in a huge mess in the region, loss of lives in both side and no result.
Don't forget that the Iranians have the experience of an 8 year war behind them, and when your home is invaded you have LOTS of motivation to defend your home/family.
(at March 31, 2007 08:33 PM)
You must be in oblivion Peace in Mind. Iran almost lost the war from Iraq and suffured more casualties in 1980's, thanks to the martyr children you've used to fight the Iraqi soldiers and it only ended in cease- fire(what a waste of life).And to think that the US crushed Iraq like a cockroach, how much more damage can US inflict to Iran? If you used your logic, we never lost in Iraq,what's left are Insurgents killing their own flesh and blood much more than Americans( They are killing each other!)what an idiot.We may have failed our objectives in Iraq but we are still on top of everything. Look at the map of Middle east and visualized every country around Iran that each has US military installations. Imagine the chaos it would bring if those installations will launch an offensive against Iran simultaneously?(forget the Aircraft carriers)B2's? It can attack from US land base to anywhere in the world. You must replay the video of Iraq invasion,how this craft wasted the country!
(at April 2, 2007 07:18 PM)
When the sleeping giant was awaken by some bombing of islamist fundamentalist, all hells broke loose! They must have realized that their idology can't be injected into the western minds. Retribution for 9/11 will be great and to appease it will cause more blood that it has shed.This is a reality and must be served as a lesson for every body.
(at April 2, 2007 07:51 PM)
It's sad and pathetic to see how many people with childish minds are arguing about how US is capable of killing and crushing and carpet bombing. Please shove all your weapons in your asses. You're all a bunch of weirdos with a mind of a 6 year old.
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