Easter Surprise: Should Iran rush into war?
Well... Britain's Defence Ministry said they royal navy troops seized in that waterway flowing into the Persian Gulf that marks the border between Iran and Iraq. But the dividing line in the waterway (Arvand River) has long been disputed... and of course Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman claimed differently.
I believe there are many indications that in the past few months, Iran has been intentionally escalating the military tensions surrounding its nuclear programme.
The rhetoric of the Iranian political and military elite has become much tougher; Tehran has been flexing its military muscle over the same issue apparently, and has showily turned down the IAEA as well as UN Security Council proposals to return to the negotiating table in order to resolve the issue; and finally, the Iranian Navy personals captured 15 British Royal Navy troops and sailors just a day before the Security Council adopted its latest resolution on tougher sanctions against Tehran.
Many include myself believe that Tehran unambiguously declared its claims to regional leadership just after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in the summer of 2005. More than a year ago, he demanded that the world community recognize Iran as a "regional superpower"... The administration was convinced that the U.S. had gotten stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not bother about Iran. This was an ideal chance to portray the Big Satan as a miserable paper tiger... and yes it was well-worked for sometime!
Tehran's anti-American rhetoric has failed to win the unreserved support from Arabs on which it counted. The U.S. has suddenly come up with a new strategy for the region that will no longer tolerate Iran's meddling in the affairs of its neighbours. This should prompt Tehran to look for ways to back down, but how can it find them without ruining its image as a "regional superpower"?
Clearly, Iran has every reason to become a regional power, and I think the world would welcome this if only Tehran did not run into its neighbours' sore spots! Iran has every right to develop civilian nuclear power, and nobody should encroach on that. But Tehran claims that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is based on the presumption of innocence, but in reality it is the other way around. Experts believe that the NPT is based on the assumption that nuclear weapons are bound to be developed if all of their components are there. This premise is based on a simple truth - man is weak, but the temptation is great. The truth is the world is not sure that Iran will resist this temptation because allegedly Tehran's effort has failed to explain properly why it wants to develop its own nuclear technologies. Here's where, I believe, we need a fresh, efficient, and feasible diplomatic policy.
Our country is a master of political manoeuvring. It was just on BBC radio 4 today morning that an expert has quoted the recent seizure of the Royal Navy personnel as an example. In its usual manner, Tehran has availed itself of an opportunity to escalate tensions. But this time, its manoeuvre has failed perhaps! For the first time ever, the Security Council has unanimously voted for tougher sanctions against Tehran. I am afraid, but maybe this will compel Iran to think whether it should rush into war!
British media are sounding alarms. We could be looking at gloomy Easter. The time for positive action is now.
'Regional superpower'- ha ha - a bunch of backward terrorists. It is upsetting how we allow people like you in the UK, as I bet you are there, probaly at the taxpayer expense. We should deport all you lot. You never know some disgruntled ex-squaddies might take a few of you hostage in the UK in retaliation. I wonder how brave you would be blindfolded and lead about at gun point.
(at March 28, 2007 07:08 PM)
I find your analysis sound, and true brit offensive. This is an ages old struggle, and tyrants in the Islamic world are very deft at manipulating racial, sectarian, and class divisions to keep their neighbors in turmoil, it's part of the game of ascendency in the Middle East. See my analysis here:
http://noblesseoblige.org/wordpress/?p=652
(at March 28, 2007 07:47 PM)
@ Tru Brit: To be honest, I could care less what a handicapped-minded person like you have to say to me. I can tolerate outrages comments but you are way wrong. As if you need more feedback, Parthisan referred to you best on his next post.
@ Thanos: the fact is my article is NOT brit offensive at all. However, as I was reading yours, I now think, your analysis is truly repulsive and aggressive, both to Iranian’s past and current beliefs. I am neither an expert in the Islamic part of the story nor in the ancient side of it. I am a logical and reasonable person though and I’d like to say that I am heavily against with your analysis but I do respect your opinion. Thanks for visiting our Blog.
(at March 29, 2007 07:53 PM)
Amir, to be honest, I couldn''t care less what backward demented subhuman like you thinks or does. Do us all a favour if you are in the West and GO HOME.
Here's about Crag from his autobioraphy. Why am I not surprised you fasten onto his words!!!
"He is not the first ambassador to display an eye for pretty girls, suffer a marriage break-up, experience staff ructions at his embassy, or even suffer breakdowns that caused him twice to be airlifted to psychiatric care at St Thomas’s Hospital. For all this to happen while he was in the midst of wrangling with London about the Uzbek regime suggests an almost demented lack of judgment. His narrative of his behaviour tips into self-parody. Between harrowing accounts of how the Uzbek police routinely rape detainees, and murdered two dissidents by boiling them alive, Murray describes a haggle with his belly dancer’s father about her price.
Dad: “You know, you should pay more if a girl is beautiful.”
Murray: “Yes, I should jolly well think so.”
D: “And Nadira is beautiful, is she not?”
M: “Yes, very beautiful.”
D: “And you know, you should pay more if a girl is educated.”
M: “I can see that.”
D: “And she’s the girlfriend of the British ambassador. That’s valuable.”
M: “But I’m the British ambassador.”
D: “But think how much another man would pay for the former girlfriend of the British ambassador.”
Murray writes: “We opened another bottle of vodka and dissolved into giggles.”
(at March 30, 2007 05:14 AM)
Amir, thanks for spreading a good sound message.
As an American, what are we doing, you may ask? I am going to support our bill that Senator Jim Webb is putting through. I think it's a good one and he has a strong progressive mindset for America.
But a portion of our population is pushing Imperialism/Corporatism and a neo conservative theory called "The Greater Chaos theory" which basically means if chaos ensues in a country shuffle the deck and try again.
My country is dead set on establishing even more military bases and privatization in the Middle East.
We can't be trusted with the current administration and the current tunnel vision policy. I reccomend Iranians to spread the word not to believe what our Propaganda machine says about "Liberation" and "Democracy" We are losing our democracy everyday with the stripping of our constitution. Alot of Kool aid drinkers don't even realize it. Because these loyalists are so stubborn with their perception.
May your country thrive and prosper and not be afraid of The U.S. And it's current World Dominating goals.
We had a million people in the streets for Iraq.
And yet our media didn't represent us because they were afraid of the truth. The truth is most of us didn't want this nor did we ask for it.
We can't afford a military conflict with this country. I hope Russian Intelligence is wrong but the military build up in the gulf is a sign to be wary of.
(at March 30, 2007 05:57 AM)
Thanks for your comment TheLollyPopGuild, it's a pleasure to read your lines and to know that there are many Americans who are thinking like us, who want peace and decent lives in the world.
(at March 30, 2007 02:07 PM)
What is it about the middle east that makes them think kidnapping, hostage taking and 'confessions' is a way forward?
It seems to a very strange concept. I fear that their isolation on an intellectual level has lead them down a very dark path.
Clearly no country that conducts its affairs in this way can ever be at peace with the west. They are drawing lines ever deeper in the sand.
Were it not for oil the west wouldn't have the least bit of interest in what happens in the middle east. The day that oil runs out may be a very happy one for all concerned.
(at March 30, 2007 06:20 PM)
It all boils down to this: Of the two, who has the bigger Johnson, Mahmoud or George?
(at April 1, 2007 12:26 PM)
Harker I'm really surprised by your comment! What do you have to say about KKK, ETA, Italian Mafia, IRA, KKK, The Westboro Baptist Church of Topeka and all other western christian terrorist groups?
It's just that we know not to associate the actions of these groups to their host countries, their region or their religion.
It's still a few years before you get rid of your ignorance and understand the differences...
(at April 1, 2007 10:29 PM)
Will it be end of April now?
Can we do anything to stop it? There's too much invested in the stockpile of defense weaponry.
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