Some Random Thoughts
The arrest of 6 British soldiers in Iran is one of the hottest issue these days. Due to the unpredictable nature of the Iranian politics - which is in turn due to the tug of war between different centres of power and a fragmentated government system - nobody still knows whether the sailors will be freed this week or not.
I am a little confused about the whole story and the real intention behind this arrest, so let me share with you what I think:
The Trap: The Iranian forces have fought a bloody war for 8 years with Iraq, and they know the Arvand-Rood area like the back of their hands. They know very well that the geography of the area changes in high and low tides, and are aware that it is very easy to get lost for someone who is new to the region. I guess it is not the first time that an allied boat 'slightly' loses its way; it probably happens quite often and is ignored by the Iranians probably because it's not unusual.
However, it seems that this time they were actually waiting there for the lost Brits, sort of like when the traffic police waits for speeding cars in a blind location. Whether they had already planned to arrest the Brits this time or they were simply annoyed about their noisy boats is another question.
The Buzz: The news was first broadcasted neither by the Iranian national (Persian language) TV/Radio nor by any Iranian news agency (IRNA, ISNA, etc), but by the Iranian satellite TV channel Al-Alam which has been set up to broadcast news in Arabic for Iraq. This means that the news had more political application outside Iran (perhaps in Iraq) than inside the country. In fact the news coverage by TV and radio inside Iran was substantially lower than the Al-Alam television. Did they want to show off to the Iraqis, proving that they have the power and might to arrest Royal Navy sailors and blindfold them?
It could also be the result of close co-operation and link between the people who control the revolutionary guards and those who run the Al-Alam channel, which is of no surprise to me. I would imagine the story this way:
The revolutionary guards arrest the Brits, then they tell their friends in Al-Alam and send them videos and pictures of blind folded sailors. Al-Alam quickly prepares and broadcasts it as "breaking news". This is when both the British HQ in Iraq and the Iranian government in Tehran hear about the story for the first time. In this way the rev. guards and Al-Alam people (conservatives and fundamentalists) buy 24 golden hours of time (or even more) to do and broadcast whatever they want before the confused Iranian government finds out exactly what's going on, what to tell the British, what to do and what official statement to announce. A clear shock and show of power. This story set aside, it shows how independent, quick and effective the rev. guards can be against the government for instance if they decide to run a coup d'etat one day.
The Apology: I can't wait until the sailors go back to Britain and tell their story, I'm so curious to know what they were told that made them apologise before the camera. This part of it was so typical Iranian - I mean it's exactly what a corrupt traffic police officer or a komitechi would do: They would make you feel you've done the worst thing in the world, and would scare you big time by threatening you with a 50,000 Toman fine (traffic) or of being taken to Vozara detention centre. Then after they make sure you are really scared, they will set before you a solution: to pay a fraction of the fine in cash (traffic); or apologise 100 times, write and sign a regretion letter in which you admit to your "mistake" and promise that you would never repeat the mistake again. Once this is done, then (by my experience) actually they will try to get rid of you and the whole atmosphere changes. As you have probably heard, the detained sailors even knew about the latest scores of European football matches. I can't wait to hear the other version of the story.
The Release: Apparently the sailors are going to be released, but again yesterday the IRIB English news said that they "were released", but the other sources just mentioned that they would 'probably' be released on Thursday, Iran and Britain have come to an agreement and are working on the final draft of a common announcement. Again, a different version of news for the non-Iranian audience, what's going on here?
The Gain: What did the rev. guard and the conservatives gain in this adventure?
• A show of power to people of Iraq (through Al-Alam)
• A show of muscle to the allied forces, although a very "limited" one.
• A test to see how much they could act independently and confuse the main government and the national army etc.
• A show of teeth to UK, for rebuking Iran's lack of co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The fundamentalists in Iran are almost against any co-operation between Iran and the IAEA.
• A sign or a frown to the EU (UK being part of it) for condemning the human rights abuse in Iran.
What do you think?
Well, it seems thet are released now, which is good news :)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3835313.stm
(at June 24, 2004 01:26 PM)
Sir,I did enjoy your "random" thought in deed. whish to see more of this type here.
(at June 24, 2004 02:52 PM)
the images of arrest and blindfolding of the sailors immediately brings up the memories of the terrorists who behead people in iraq. I don't know whether they deliberately wanted to create such an image or was it their stupidity (or both)...
(at June 24, 2004 06:43 PM)
As the Iranians are behind a lot of the trouble in Iraq, and are financing it, it isn't surprising they used the same tactics. Just goes to show what a waste of time any detente is with a terrorist state like Iran.
(at June 25, 2004 07:51 PM)
Comments made by Jon - ignorant and arrogant!
There is no proof Iran is a state sponsor of terror - this phrase has been condured up by American figures in an attempt to antagonize opposing nations. The tactic works very well in simple uninformed societie(s).
Iran has the right to blindfold prisoners. There is nothing in the Geneva Convention that forbids blindfolding. The Americans and Israelis blindfold prisoners all the time. Anyone whining about blindfolds is more so than not - uninformed - about International Policies.
Iran's Rev. Guards are no different than American CIA or NSA operatives. Of course, they work independantly - all secret service outlets have to maintain a low-profile. The chances of a coup by the Rev. Guards is unlikely. More likely is an American attack on Iran within the decade. The Americans once used Iraq to punish Iran - soon they'll have their chance to face Iran directly on the battleground - if they're brave enough that is - one must admit - dropping bombs from space is not exactly a hero's job - rather the work of a specially brainwashed grunt. If the Americans are not pleased with Iran - they can invade them. They will - they just need a few years to manipulate an appropriate farce to confuse the world in believing what they preech is good.
Iran Zendebad -
har mogheye Amrikayi harf zad - mogheye badiye
(at July 2, 2004 07:34 AM)
Comments by Kaveh -- ignorant and laughably sad!
Who are you trying to fool, us or yourself?
"There is no proof Iran is a state sponsor of terror"? What kind of proof are you asking for? Iran terrorizes its own people, that's a fact. It funds Hizb-ol-lah and founded Amal, both terrorist operations.
"Iran's Rev. Guards are no different than American CIA or NSA operatives"? Ah, Rev. Gaurds is not an intelligence service, it's the para-military force of the regime, built to overshadow the army and protect the IR.
"The chances of a coup by the Rev. Guards is unlikely"? Yes, I agree, since it's already happened!
"har mogheye Amrikayi harf zad - mogheye badiye"? translates to "Whenever an American said anything - it's a bad time" Yeah, and whenever a fake like you attacks that American, nothing comes out but an ironically blunt support for one of the most hated governments in the world, one that is even hated by its own believers.
(at July 10, 2004 10:06 AM)
The problem is both the Iranian and the American government sponsor terrorism in different ways. Both support international terrorism, in fact the US does that in a bigger scale because it has the power to do that, if Iran does it in Lebonan then the US does it in Guatemala, Isreal, Nicaragua, Cuba, ... Both regimes terrorise their own people, in different forms. But what makes them different is that the people in America "are not informed" while the people in Iran are informed but "are not allowed to do anything".
Anyway, this is the fact in this world - the bigger thief rubs the smaller thief. Unless Iranians are able to make a secure home for themselves, thiefs are there to rub them
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